Brazil Market
2011 the Brazilian economy still has growth potential
2011, by the latest economic data show that Brazilian debt crisis in Europe and the impact of external economic downturn, the country had the effect of tight monetary policy is gradually emerging, the country is expected next year's economic growth target of 5% can not be achieved. However, Brazil's economic growth potential, and the fundamentals of becoming healthy, which makes the country's long-term economic outlook remains can be expected.Season is expected to achieve positive growth
Data show that in the third quarter, agriculture, private sector consumption spending and total social investment as stimulating economic growth in Brazil, the "troika", which were up 6.9%, 2.8% and 2.5%. Industry, services and government spending is increased by 1%, 2% and 1.2%. In addition, three quarters of Brazil's exports and imports were up 4.1% and 5.8%.
However, calculated by the chain, three quarters of Brazil's industry, services, total social investment, private sector consumption spending and shrinking government consumption expenditures were 0.9%, 0.3%, 0.2%, 0.1% and 0.7%, only 3.2% of the agricultural sector to achieve value of growth.
Brazilian Finance Minister's speech will open the third quarter of the previous economic stagnation due to the intensity of excessive inflation and the worsening debt situation in developed countries, but he expected the fourth quarter of Brazil will be able to return to positive growth, and next year's growth rate will be expanded to 5 percent.
From January to July this year, Brazil's central bank raised its benchmark interest rate five times to 12.5%, the interest rate increase among the forefront of emerging markets. But with the wind in the second half of the global economy turns sharply, Brazil's central bank cut interest rates three times since August, the cumulative rate of 150 basis points. Last week, the Brazilian government has launched a series of tax cuts aimed at stimulating domestic demand and credit incentives.
BBVA, Spain, Brazil Santos, senior economist said: "The series of stimulus measures will prevent the Brazilian economy to achieve a hard landing, but not if the Brazilian government expected to achieve significant economic growth, next year's economic growth target of 5% is unlikely to be achieved. "
Long-term outlook remains positive
Analysts said that although the Brazilian government and financial institutions in next year's economic growth prospects of the anticipated large differences, but as the world's major emerging economies, Brazil's financial crisis in the calm after the turn, economic growth in 2010 7.5 %. In addition, Brazil's younger demographic, health, financial situation and the growing maturity of the domestic market makes Brazil a long-term growth potential.
"Wall Street Journal" reported that the types of goods in Brazil is very diverse, from coffee to soybeans, pulp, oil and minerals; Brazil's manufacturing sector also has some advantages, including footwear production and Embraer aircraft manufacturer; In addition, Brazil exports basically balanced coverage of the world almost all the major trade, which are outside the Brazilian economic threat in the defense in an advantageous position.
According to the British "Economist" Intelligence Unit's assessment, following the 2010 over Italy as the world's seventh largest economy, Brazil's GDP this year is expected to reach $ 2.44 trillion, more than Britain's $ 2.41 trillion, becoming the sixth largest economy the body. In addition, the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Olympic Games held in Brazil are the two grand, no doubt will give the country back into a new growth dynamic.